September jobs report: Old news is still news
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | Nov 20, 2025
The latest jobs numbers are out from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. What do they mean for job seekers, employers and investors? Here’s a quick take from Glassdoor’s Chief Economist Daniel Zhao.
The first jobs report after the government reopened is old news to some extent, looking back at September before the government shutdown. And the mixed data for September is a frustrating reminder of how difficult it is to parse the job market’s trajectory right now with September payrolls beating expectations, August revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate creeping upward. The jobs data seems to point to a slight improvement in the job market from a sluggish summer, but the rising unemployment rate is a warning indicator blinking softly.
Key stats
- Payroll employment grew 119,000 in September, above expectations. August, however, was revised down from 22,000 jobs added to 4,000 jobs lost, a second month of job losses for 2025 in addition to June.
- Unemployment rose to 4.4% in September, up from 4.3% in August, the highest level since October 2021, almost exactly 4 years ago. Rising unemployment is not in dangerous territory yet, but the upward climb is concerning.
- Average hourly earnings grew 3.8% year-over-year in September, unchanged from 3.8% rate in August.
What was happening in the job market before the shutdown?
The improvement in payroll growth in September brings jobs growth back into the 6-figures for the first time since April. Consumer spending and corporate earnings have held up despite concerns that tariffs would more sharply drag economic growth down, which may have been buoying jobs growth before the shutdown began.
Encouragingly, the improvement in September also came from a wider base of jobs growth as healthcare & social assistance (+57,100) was not the only driver of job gains. Construction (+19,000), retail (+13,900), leisure & hospitality (+47,000) and state & local government (+25,000) all helped boost job gains in September.
The most concerning data point from the September jobs report is the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. The uptick in the unemployment rate brings it to its highest level since October 2021, however, the rate of increase is not yet flashing a bright red warning light. If the rate were to continue to rise, it would risk triggering the Sahm rule recession indicator, but it’s still several ticks below that level for now.
What does this mean post-shutdown?
Old news is still news. The latest data does give us some confidence that the job market was not sharply deteriorating right before the government shutdown began at the start of October. However, it doesn’t tell us how the job market has weathered the shutdown since then. Historically, the economic impacts of government shutdown have been sharp but temporary. The November jobs report (now rescheduled for December 16 release) will still bear the imprint from the shutdown and furloughed federal workers. So we will have to wait until the December jobs report (released in early January) for a clean read on if the job market has been able to shrug off the effects of the shutdown.
More insights
Health care & social assistance accounted for less than half of jobs added in September, for the first time since April. Health care & social assistance has been a consistent driver of jobs growth since the beginning of 2022. Even during recessions, health care tends to grow steadily as the demand for health care services expands.
On a half-year basis, it's a mixed bag on which industries have been doing better in H2 2025. Leisure & hospitality stands out as an industry growing much stronger so far in H2 2025, perhaps due to strong consumer spending.
Wage growth grew 3.8% year-over-year in September, though there has been signs of a bit of an uptick since the spring. On a 3-month annualized basis, wage growth is at 4% in September, up from a recent low of 2.8% in April.
The rise in the unemployment rate did accompany a rise in labor force participation, which improved to the highest level since April 2025.
The prime-age labor force participation rate, however, was flat in September. This rate however remains just a tick below its post-pandemic high, not showing a sharper sign of deterioration in the job market.
Similarly, the prime-age employment-population ratio was unchanged in September and also remains just a tick below its post-pandemic high.
Asian unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%, highest since August 2021. Black unemployment remains elevated at 7.5%, tied for highest rate since October 2021. Overall unemployment is at its highest level since October 2021, so it is not necessarily a surprise to see Asian and Black unemployment at similar high-water marks, but it is still a concern, especially for Black workers who historically have had much higher unemployment rates than other workers. Note: Keep in mind these rates are very volatile month-to-month.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about this report, please contact pr@glassdoor.com.
Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
