April Jobs Report Preview: Steady Progress Expected
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | May 3, 2022
This Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the April jobs report. The job market likely maintained a healthy pace of job growth in April as demand for workers remains near record highs. Despite risk factors like the war in Ukraine, high inflation and rising interest rates, the job market remains fundamentally healthy.
Here are three trends we'll be watching for in the April jobs report:
- Jobs growth to maintain a similar pace. 431,000 jobs were added in March, and April is likely to match that pace. High levels of employer demand for workers will likely keep hiring strong and above the 400,000 monthly job gains mark for the 12th month in a row. At this pace, payroll employment levels will return to pre-pandemic levels this summer.
- Unemployment rate to tie 50-year low. The unemployment rate is likely to tick down to 3.5 percent, a benchmark last reached in February 2020. This would tie the lowest rate since 1969. Hispanic/Latino unemployment is currently 4.2 percent, just barely above the lowest level on record (4.0 percent) since this data began being reported in 1973.
- Wage growth to cool slightly but remain hot. Wage growth is likely to moderate slightly as employee demand remains high but doesn't increase further. Wage growth for many workers is struggling to keep pace with inflation.
Salary Expectations on the Rise
New research from Glassdoor shows that workers are increasingly expecting more pay as the job market tightened over 2021 and early 2022. In Q1 2022, job seekers on Glassdoor clicked on new jobs that pay a whopping 34 percent more than their current roles, the highest expected salary increase since Q2 2019. Salary expectations from workers have increased dramatically over 2021, when the job market tightened following the initial crash during the pandemic. Growth in salary expectations was more muted in the last few months, however, as while the job market has remained hot, employer demand for workers has plateaued.
Job seekers in lower-wage industries like food services, entertainment, consumer services and retail have always had the highest salary aspirations. Many workers in these industries are using these jobs as supplemental or temporary income before transitioning into longer-term careers. For example, in Q1 2022, job seekers in food services were looking for jobs that paid $18,513 more than their current roles, often as they looked for professional roles in business services or tech.
This trend has been accentuated further during the pandemic. Salary expectations have increased the most in frontline service industries like food services, recreation, retail and travel. Workers remaining in these industries are gaining more leverage as employers compete fiercely for workers, many of whom are still hesitant to return. In restaurants, bars & food services, workers are looking for jobs that pay $5,183 or roughly $2.59/hour more than the jobs they were looking for before the pandemic.
Overall, job seekers today are expecting significantly higher pay and are willing to switch jobs, industries and career paths in order to get it. In particular, Glassdoor's new research emphasizes that frontline service workers are on the move and those that are on the move are expecting big pay bumps.
Conclusion
The job market is transitioning from white hot to red hot. While employer demand for workers is still near record highs, it is plateauing rather than setting new record highs month after month. And the Federal Reserve has begun raising interest rates, facing the difficult balancing act of tamping down inflation without impinging on jobs growth. For the time being, jobs growth remains quite strong and workers are asking for increasingly large pay bumps to keep up with inflation.
Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
Tags:Labor MarketUnemployment
